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تحلیل طلای جهانی :: Rahathagh.ir/حمید راحت حق

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تحلیل هفتگی سایت |کیتکو در مورد |طلای جهانی(Gold): همگی برای صعود قیمت ^طلا آماده هستند

تحلیل هفتگی سایت |کیتکو در مورد |طلای جهانی(Gold): همگی برای صعود قیمت ^طلا آماده هستند

https://bayanbox.ir/view/8524575133890083709/kitco-11-7-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AA-%D8%AD%D9%82.jpg

بر اساس ارزیابی هفتگی سایت کیتکو (Kitco)، سرمایه‌گذاران خرد و فعالین حرفه‌ای نسبت به افزایش قیمت اونس طلای جهانی خوشبین تر شده اند. بخصوص که طلای جهانی توانست هفته گذشته را در بالای ۱۸۰۰ دلار به پایان برساند. برآورد می شود که اکثریت تحلیلگران این باور را دارند که نوساناتی که بعد از سقوط شدید ماه ژوئن شروع شده بود، به انتهای خود رسیده است.


با این وجود بعضی از تحلیلگران بازار هنوز معتقندکه بایداحتیاط کرد، چون‌ بازار طلا هنوز نتوانسته خود را جمع کند و به رویدادهای کلیدی واکنش نشان بدهد. به عنوان مثال بانک مرکزی اروپا اعلام کرده که نرخ رشد تورم می‌تواند به بالای ۲ درصد هم برسد. بانک مرکزی چین هم نرخ بهره را کاهش داده است. سقوط آزاد نرخ بازدهی اوراق قرضه جهانی و حتی افت بازارهای سهام هم نتوانسته قیمت طلا را به طور ملموسی بالا بکشد.


این هفته ۱۶ فعال حرفه‌ای (Wall Street) در ارزیابی هفتگی سایت کیتکو شرکت داشته اند. ۷۵ درصد پیش‌بینی کردند که روند این هفته طلای جهانی صعودی است. ۱۲٫۵ درصد پیش‌بینی می‌کنند که روند نزولی باشد و ۱۲٫۵ درصد دیگر هم انتظار بازار بدون روند یا خنثی را دارند. در همین حال ۹۰۲ سرمایه‌گذار خرد (Main Street) هم در نظرسنجی شرکت کرده‌اند. ۶۱ درصد بیان کردند که روند صعودی خواهد بود، ۲۰ درصد گفتند روند نزولی و ۱۹ درصد هم روند طلای جهانی (GOLD) را خنثی اعلام کردند.

 

نظر اهالی بازار در مورد روند این هفته طلای جهانی (GOLD)

اوله هانسن (Ole Hansen) مسئول تیم استراتژی Saxo Bank

هانسن به روند میان‌ مدت اونس طلای جهانی خوش‌بین است. با این حال او بر این باور است که سرمایه‌گذاران بازار طلا هم‌ زمان با شروع تعطیلات تابستانی بازار، با نویزهای مختلفی مواجه هستند. با وجود عملکرد ضعیف بازار طلا، من فکر می‌کنم که قیمت طلا فضا برای رشد بیشتر را دارد. دلایل زیادی هست که از روند صعودی حمایت می‌کنندهانسن گفته که به روند صعودی خوش‌بین است، اما برای خرید عجله‌ ندارد.

اوگن واینبرگ (Eugen Weinberg) سرپرست تیم مطالعاتی بازار کالا در Commerzbank

بله، طلا در بالای ۱۸۰۰ دلار قرار دارد، اما هنوز خبری از شکست قطعی این سطح کلیدی نیست.” او معتقد است که شاید طلا قبل از جذب خریداران به بازار مدتی در این محدوده نوسان کند. “من فکر می‌کنم که بازار به زودی به قیمت‌های بالاتر صعود خواهد کرد. به نظر من، وقتی‌که سرمایه‌گذاران به این نتیجه رسیدند که فدرال رزرو و بانک مرکزی اروپا با رشد سریع تورم مشکلی نخواهند داشت، قیمت اونس طلای جهانی هم صعود خواهد کرد. اما معلوم نیست که این اتفاق کی خواهد افتاد.”

آدریان دی (Adrian Day) رئیس شرکت مدیریت سرمایه آدریان دی

آدریان دی انتظار دارد که نوسانات بازار طلا ادامه یابند. با این حال از نظر او روند میان‌مدت و بلندمدت بازار طلا به دلیل سیاست‌ های انبساطی پولی و رشد سریع تورم صعودی است.

مارک چندلر (Marc Chandler) مدیر شرکت Bannockburn Global Forex

چندلر برخلاف سایر تحلیلگران، به روند میان‌مدت اونس طلای جهانی بدبین است. از نظر او کاهش نرخ بازدهی اوراق خیلی سریع بوده و به همین دلیل شاید در هفته پیش رو بخشی از این افت نرخ بازدهی جبران شود. شاید رالی شش روزه طلا خریداران را خسته کرده باشد. همچنین شاید در هفته پیش رو نرخ بازدهی اوراق خزانه‌داری آمریکا افزایش یابد. قیمت اونس طلای جهانی رابطه معکوسی با نرخ بازدهی اوراق خزانه‌داری دارد. یعنی افزایش نرخ بازدهی اوراق خزانه‌داری به ضرر قیمت طلاست.

نیکولاس فرپل (Nicholas Frappell) مدیر جهانی ABC Bullion

این فعال حرفه‌ای به روند اونس طلای جهانی خوش‌بین است و انتظار دارد که قیمت طلا به ۱۸۲۰ دلار برسد. او دلیل خوش‌بینی خود به بازار طلا را تثبیت قیمت طلا در بالای حمایت ۱۷۹۰ دلار عنوان کرده است. طلا هنوز هم بعد از سقوط شدید اخیر، در فاز خنثی نوسان می‌کند. اما اخیراً ساختار صعودی به خود گرفته و از شروع بازگشت اصلاحی و صعودی حکایت دارد. شاید در هفته پیش رو شاخص‌های تورمی و خرده‌فروشی آمریکا محرک رالی صعودی بعدی بازار طلا باشند.

11 July 21 ، 12:15 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

Kitco's opinion about gold from the perspective of investors Sunday, June 6

Kitco's opinion about gold from the perspective of investors Sunday, June 6

https://bayanbox.ir/view/4512490619870336680/kitco-6-6-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AA-%D8%AD%D9%82.jpg According to Kitco News' weekly assessment, the market atmosphere is still in favor of buyers. Some analysts believe that the growth of US economic indicators will intensify inflationary pressures. However, the growth of economic indicators is not strong enough to force the US Federal Reserve to withdraw from expansionary monetary policy. Micro-investors and market traders believe that the gold market trend will tend to rise in the coming week. However, the number of fans of the downtrend is also increasing. A number of analysts have warned that the gold market is above $ 1,900 saturation.

This week, 16 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. 69% predict that the global gold ounce trend will be upward. Another 13% predict that the market trend will be downward. Meanwhile, about 19% expect a trend-free or neutral market. Also this week, 1,023 Main Street investors took part in an online poll. 54% were in favor of the uptrend, 29% were in favor of the downtrend and 17% were in favor of the neutral trend.

US employment data was released on Friday, which was generally weaker than market forecasts. The growth of the US NFP index was only 559 thousand units. The market expected growth of 645,000 units. However, wage growth last month was half a percent.

Analysis of professional gold market activists

Marc Chandler is the CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex

According to the activist, the price of an ounce of global gold grew well in response to weak US employment data. "However, in ounces of gold ounces, I tend to be a seller rather than a buyer. "MACD and stochastic indicators also indicate a bearish correction."

Adrina Day, President of Adrian Investment Management Company

"US employment data show weak employment growth. Wage growth has been good. But rising wages are raising concerns about escalating inflationary pressures. Wage growth is usually highly sticky, and NFP growth indicates that wages need to go even higher for more people to return to the job market. "This is bad news for the US dollar and good news for the ounce of global gold."

John Feneck, founder of Feneck Investment Consulting

"The break-in of the key $ 1,900 level in May reflects the long-term uptrend in the market."

Kevin Grady, President of Phoenix Futures and Options

Gardi believes that despite the bearish return of the gold market on Thursday, the market is still stable and has a strong uptrend. In his view, gold has been able to defend key protections. However, he added that this week's gold trend will be neutral. Gerdi expects the US Federal Reserve to back out of expansionary monetary policy in response to rising inflationary pressures. According to him, gold will face a serious challenge in maintaining its position above $ 1,900. "The US Federal Reserve has made a mistake in assessing the outlook for inflation, and the rapid growth of inflation will not be temporary. "Gold can rise to higher levels, but somewhere in the rally, US inflationary pressures will cause the Federal Reserve to pull back from expansionary monetary policy and halt the global gold ounce rally."

Darin Newsom Independent Market Analyst

The activist believes that because the price of an ounce of world gold could not close above the closing price of two weeks ago (in 1905), the medium-term trend of the market has changed.

06 June 21 ، 18:59 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

Gold analysis Wednesday, April 21

Gold analysis Wednesday, April 21

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On the global gold ion weekly chart, XAUUSD is still below the resistance line and the long-term moving average at $ 1785. If the weekly ounce chart of the world gold is closed below this resistance, one can expect the price of the ounce gold to fall to the support of $ 1687. In the daily chart of the global gold ounce, we see a situation similar to the situation of the daily chart. If the global gold ounce crosses the $ 1785 resistance level, the next target of the resistance market will be $ 1855. In the four-hour chart of global gold ounces, the short-term market trend is declining and the price of global gold ounces may fall to $ 1760. But the break of the $ 1785 resistance will pave the way for the market to rise to the next resistance at $ 1805.

Trading strategy

The $ 1785 resistance will determine the next direction of the market. The failure of this resistance will change the market trend upwards. But if it can maintain its position, the market will fall to lower support.

21 April 21 ، 14:11 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

Weekly Gold Analysis Saturday, April 3

Weekly Gold Analysis Saturday, April 3

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The price of gold has been on the rise despite the growth of employment in the United States. In March, the United States, the world's largest economy, created 916,000 jobs. If inflation continues, will the Fed raise interest rates and reduce the attractiveness of gold for investment? The answer to this question is complicated! But first, gold must be examined technically.
According to the TCI indicator, a significant support level is formed at $ 1,738. This level is the intersection of the middle band of the Bollinger Band indicator in a four-hour time frame with levels of 23.6% weekly Fibonacci and 61.8% monthly Fibonacci.
If this support level is broken, the next target will be the level of $ 1,708. In this range, the 100-hour moving average indicator and the weekly S2 pivot hit a level of 38.2% Fibonacci monthly.

On the other hand, the first resistance level is formed at $ 1,732 (the intersection of the upper band of the Bollinger Band indicator and the level of 38.2% Fibonacci weekly).
If this resistance level is broken, the next target will be the $ 1,747 level. This resistance is formed at the intersection of the daily P2 R2 and the weekly R1.

03 April 21 ، 11:04 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

Gold Analysis Thursday, March 25

Gold Analysis Thursday, March 25

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The price of the global ounce of gold fluctuated around $ 1,735 at the beginning of Thursday and has not yet managed to cross the $ 5 range. The price is currently fluctuating within the indicator of the 200-hour moving average and is nearing the end of the symmetrical triangle pattern.
Given the low volatility trend of the RSI indicator, one can expect the price to move only if the resistance of $ 1,738 or support of $ 1,725 ​​is broken. On the other hand, the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $ 1,720 and the monthly price ceiling at $ 1,755 play the role of support and resistance levels, respectively.
If the price fails to maintain the corrective trend at the beginning of March and the US dollar index grows, then sellers will be able to control the market for a longer period of time.

Technical levels
Last price of the day: $ 1734.48
Daytime fluctuations: 0.48-
Daytime fluctuations (٪): 0.03-
Starting price: $ 1734.96
Trends
20-day moving average: $ 1726.26
50-day moving average: $ 1787.01
100-day moving average: $ 1826.41
200-day moving average: $ 1860.65
Levels
Yesterday's highest price: $ 1738.48
Yesterday's lowest price: $ 1723.86
Last week's highest price: $ 1755.59
Last week's lowest price: $ 1719.3
Last month's highest price: $ 1871.9
Last month's lowest price: $ 1717.24
Fibonacci 38.2. Daily: $ 1732.9
Fibonacci 61.8. Daily: $ 1729.44
Pivot S1 Daily: $ 1726.39
Pivot S2 Daily: $ 1717.81
Pivot S3 Daily: $ 1711.77
Pivot R1 Daily: $ 1741.01
Pivot R2 Daily: $ 1747.05
Pivot R3 Daily: $ 1755.63

25 March 21 ، 13:34 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

Weekly evaluation of Kitco site from the expectations of gold market investors Tuesday, March 9

Weekly evaluation of Kitco site from the expectations of gold market investors  Tuesday, March 9

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The strengthening dollar, the jump in Treasury yields and investor optimism about strong US economic growth have pushed down the price of an ounce of global gold. Kitco News 'weekly assessment also shows market participants' pessimism about the future of the gold market. Now the question that has occupied the minds of most market participants is how much will the rate of return on treasury bonds increase?
This week, 13 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. 29% predict that this week's trend will be an upward ounce of global gold. 57% predict that the market trend will be downtrend and another 14% expect the market to be trending or neutral. Meanwhile, 1,482 Main Street investors took part in the online survey. 40% are in favor of an uptrend, 44% are in favor of a downtrend and 16% are in favor of a trend-free market.
On Friday, the price of an ounce of global gold reached the support of $ 1680. The strong growth of 379 thousand NFP units was the main reason for the fall in the price of an ounce of global gold. US employment growth was much higher than market forecasts. Despite the fact that the price of an ounce of world gold rose from the price floor on Friday, XAUUSD ended the week in the negative range. As US economic performance improves, some analysts believe that Treasury yields could rise further. Especially since the US Federal Reserve has no problem raising the rate of return on Treasury bonds. The head of the Federal Reserve has said that raising interest rates alone is not enough to raise interest rates and exit expansionary monetary policy. It does not seem to matter to the US Federal Reserve what the rate of return on Treasury bonds is.
The views of gold market professionals

Phillip Streible is the senior market strategist at Blue Line Futures
"Whenever the rate of return on treasury bonds peaks, there will be a price floor in ounces of global gold."
Darin Newsome President of Darin Newsom Analysis
"The views of the head of the US Federal Reserve mean that the rate of return on Treasury bonds could rise further without the central bank intervening. "Increasing the rate of return on treasury bonds will put pressure on the price of an ounce of global gold."
Ole Hansen leads the commodity strategy team at Saxo Bank
The market activist expects the global ounce price to rise in the medium term. According to him, the price of an ounce of global gold has been able to maintain its support in the 11-month price floor. However, in the opinion of this professional activist, the challenges facing gold buyers are not over yet. "The price of an ounce of global gold will not rise until the yield on Treasury bonds and the US dollar reaches equilibrium. The Federal Reserve also has no plans to deal with rising Treasury yields. In other words, for the Federal Reserve to get involved, the country's financial system will face a significant increase in borrowing costs and will suffer a lot. "
Adrian Day, President of Adrian D. Capital Management Company
Adrian Day still hopes for an ounce of global gold, as long as fundamental issues support the price of an ounce of global gold. He believes that the strong growth of the dollar and the rate of return on treasury bonds will hurt the price of an ounce of global gold. "As long as the dollar trend and the rate of return on treasury bonds are bullish, the situation will be difficult for gold buyers. "At the moment I am just watching the situation and I will enter the market at reasonable prices."
Colin Cieszynski SIA Wealth Management Senior Market Strategy
The global gold ounce price will also be under pressure until inflation rises to significant levels, the activist said. He believes that other than gold, commodities are rising in price, which means that inflationary pressures will soon intensify.

09 March 21 ، 12:27 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

Check the gold trend Monday, March 8

Check the gold trend Monday, March 8

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The global ounce price rose 0.57% to $ 1,708 as Monday's trading session in Europe approached. Thus, the price of gold has started to rise from its 9-month low.
Given the RSI indicator reached the sell-off zone and the formation of a Dodge candlestick pattern on Friday, there is a possibility that this corrective trend will continue.
However, the bearish trend line since November 30 at $ 1,760 is a resistance.
Meanwhile, the $ 1,700 level plays the role of the first important support that if the price penetrates below this level, we can expect a fall to the downtrend line formed on August 12 at $ 1,677.
If the $ 1,677 support is broken, the price of gold will fall to the level of $ 1,670 and eventually to $ 1,610.

Technical levels
Last price of the day: $ 1707.8
Daily fluctuations: 9.6
Daytime fluctuations (٪): 0.57
Starting price: $ 1698.2
Trends
20-day moving average: $ 1779.02
50-day moving average: $ 1829.15
100-day moving average: $ 1848.59
200-day moving average: $ 1860.11
Levels
Yesterday's highest price: $ 1707.26
Yesterday's lowest price: $ 1687.37
Last week's highest price: $ 1759.98
Last week's lowest price: $ 1687.37
Last month's highest price: $ 1871.9
Last month's lowest price: $ 1717.24
Fibonacci 38.2. Daily: $ 1699.97
Fibonacci 61.8. Daily: $ 1695.16
Pivot S1 Daily: $ 1687.89
Pivot S2 Daily: $ 1677.39
Pivot S3 Daily: $ 1667.4
Pivot R1 Daily: $ 1708.18
Pivot R2 Daily: $ 1718.17
Pivot R3 Daily: $ 1728.57

08 March 21 ، 14:25 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

Weekly Gold Analysis Sunday, February 21

Weekly Gold Analysis Sunday, February 21

https://bayanbox.ir/view/7394721176202554383/kitco-21-2-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AA-%D8%AD%D9%82.jpg

Fundamental analysis of ounces of global gold

Investors and market professionals are also pessimistic about the future of gold prices after the global ounce price fell to its lowest level in eight months. The rise in US Treasury yields has been a major factor in lowering the price of an ounce of global gold. Analysts and traders are pessimistic about the future and medium-term trend of the global ounce of gold, while investors' optimism about the future of the gold market has reached its lowest level in several years. Some analysts believe that the price of an ounce of global gold could fall further in the medium term, as rising US Treasury yields could force the Federal Reserve to control the yield curve. Analysts believe that controlling the US yield curve could be to the detriment of the US dollar.
This week, 18 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly Kitco News review. 17% of respondents predict that the global gold ounce trend will be bullish. 72% predict that the market trend will be downward. Meanwhile, another 11 percent predict that the market will be trendless. Meanwhile, 1,292 Main Street investors took part in the online survey. 43% were in favor of an uptrend, 40% were in favor of a downtrend and 17% were in favor of a trend-free market.
Many analysts believe that the US Treasury bond market is the biggest threat to the gold market. Although inflationary pressures are on the rise, on the other hand, economic growth expectations are strong and therefore offset the effect of inflation expectations. These optimisms about the future of the world economy have led to an increase in US Treasury yields, which will eventually lead to an increase in real interest rates in the US economy. An increase in real interest rates is to the detriment of ounces of global gold, as it increases the opportunity cost of investing in gold.
The views of gold market professionals

Adrian Day, President of Adrian D. Asset Management Company
"The fall in the price of an ounce of world gold has been longer and deeper than I expected. "However, I think the gold market is entering a period in which long-term buyers are likely to either exit the market or refuse to re-enter the market." The professional activist went on to say that the pressure to sell ounces of global gold was too normal, but it should be noted that market price movements do not always proceed with the fundamental situation. Adrian Dee hopes to hit the gold market in the next week or two.
Ole Hansen leads Saxo Bank strategy team
This professional activist is pessimistic about the global gold ounce trend. He said that even if the fundamentals of the global ounce of gold were strong, he was still pessimistic about the future of the global ounce price. "Before the market starts to move upwards, it needs to change. "We are almost certain that inflation will grow faster than previously predicted, and when that happens, real bond yields will be balanced." According to Hansen, although the Federal Reserve is likely to control the yield curve, he believes that the Fed will not act until the rate hike hurts the US stock market.
David Madden Senior Market Strategy at CMC Markets
The activist expects the price of an ounce of global gold to fall as the rate of return on Treasury bonds rises. However, he remains optimistic about the medium-term ounce of global gold. "Increasing the yield on US Treasury bonds will draw all attention to a possible rate hike," he said. "While no central bank in the world wants to raise interest rates, there is still the possibility of an upward rally in the global ounce of gold." He added that the global ounce gold market fluctuates between $ 1,700 and $ 1,900. He does not expect the market to rise to $ 2,000, as the global economy shows signs of recovery.
Colin Cieszynski Senior Market Strategy at SIA Asset Management
According to the activist, part of the demand for gold has been lost due to the attractiveness of bitcoin and other digital currencies, especially since the price of bitcoin has risen above $ 50,000.
Marc Chandler is the CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex
The fall of the global gold ounce to $ 1,760 has driven many buyers off the market. One can expect the market to hit the range of $ 1810-1795. Crossing the global ounce price above $ 1820 could improve the technical outlook for the gold ounce. It has recently been rumored that Bitcoin is the gold of the modern world, but I do not agree with this idea. "I think it will take more time to judge."

21 February 21 ، 12:14 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

Key points of buying and selling ounces of gold Tuesday, February 16

Key points of buying and selling ounces of gold Tuesday, February 16

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Offer: sell below 1812.50 with a first profit tick of 1789.00 and a second profit tick of 1782.00
Alternative offer (in case of price trend change) When the price penetrates above 1812.50, the price first starts moving towards 1818.00 and 1827.00.

Support and resistance points
1827.00
1818.00
1812.50
————————
1789.00
1782.00
1771.75

16 February 21 ، 18:17 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق