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ارزیابی هفتگی طلای جهانی :: Rahathagh.ir/حمید راحت حق

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تحلیل هفتگی سایت |کیتکو (Kitco) درباره طلای* جهانی: بازار هنوز هم به روند صعودی خود خوشبین! است.

تحلیل هفتگی سایت کیتکو (Kitco) درباره طلای جهانی: بازار هنوز هم به روند صعودی خود خوشبین است.

https://bayanbox.ir/view/7710366575002209320/kitco-19-7-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AA-%D8%AD%D9%82.jpg

بر اساس  تحلیل هفتگی سایت کیتکو (Kitco News)، فعالین حرفه‌ای بازار و سرمایه ‌گذاران خرد توقع دارند که قیمت طلای جهانی در معاملات هفته پیش رو افزایش داشته باشد، این نظر در حالی است که مقاومت قوی در میانگین متحرک ۵۰ روز وجود دارد.

ارزیابی هفتگی سایت کیتکو حاکی از آن است که خوش‌بینی‌ها به افزایش قیمت طلا همچنان بالاست، به خصوص که قیمت طلای جهانی توانسته در نیمه معاملات هفته گذشته به بالاترین سطح قیمتی در یک ماه گذشته خود برسد. بسیاری از تحلیلگران معتقدند که افزایش فشارهای تورمی باعث افزایش قیمت خواهد شد. همچنین فدرال رزرو هم معتقد است که رشد سریع تورم موقتی بوده و نیازی به افزایش نرخ بهره یا کاهش حجم خرید اوراق قرضه نیست. باید توجه داشت که تغییر سیاست‌های پولی فدرال رزرو ریسک جدی برای بازار طلا به حساب می آید و فعلاً به نظر می‌رسد که خبری از تغییر سیاست‌های پولی نیست.

همچنین رئیس فدرال رزرو آمریکا در برابر اعضای کنگره گفته است که رشد سریع تورم در چند ماه آینده هم ادامه دارد. از نظر پاول رشد سریع تورم موقتی خواهد بود. پاول معتقد است که اوضاع اقتصادی آمریکا به گونه‌ای تغییر نداشته که شرایط برای خروج از سیاست‌های انبساطی پولی فراهم شود. او گفته است که: از نظر ما نرخ بهره فعلی مناسب شرایط اقتصادی آمریکاست. پاول بیان کرد که سیاست‌ های پولی زمانی تغییر خواهند کرد که اقتصاد آمریکا به وضعیت اشتغال کامل برسد.

در این هفته ۱۶ فعال حرفه‌ای (Wall Street) در ارزیابی هفتگی کیتکو (Kitco) شرکت داشتند. ۵۶ درصد پیش‌بینی کردند که در این هفته طلای جهانی می تواند روند صعودی داشته باشد. ۱۹ درصد دیگر انتظار داشتند که روند بازار نزولی باشد. ۲۵ درصد هم بازار را بدون روند یا خنثی براورد کردند. در همین حال ۸۳۶ سرمایه‌گذار خرد (Main Street) نیز در نظرسنجی آنلاین شرکت کرده‌اند. ۶۷ درصد طرفدار روند صعودی، ۱۷ درصد طرفدار روند نزولی و ۱۶ درصد هم طرفدار روند خنثی هستند.

 

نظر فعالین حرفه ای بازار در  مورد بازار این هفته طلای جهانی

 

آدام باتن (Adam Button) استراتژیست ارشد بازار در Forexlive.com

باتن معتقد است که با وجود اختلاف‌نظرها بر سر تورم آمریکا، ریسک‌های اقتصادی همچنان از قیمت‌های بالاتر طلا حمایت خواهند کرد. چشم‌انداز بنیادی طلا همچنان مبهم است. سیگنالی‌هایی که از فدرال رزرو، تورم و کرونای دلتا صادر می‌شود گیج کننده هستند. اما در کل همه چیز از پایین باقی ماندن نرخ بهره حکایت دارد. در بازار طلا، من فکر می‌کنم که این خبر خوبی است و باعث خواهد شد تا قیمت طلا به محدوده ۱۹۰۰ یا نزدیکی آن صعود کند.

دارین نیوسام (Darin Newsom) تحلیلگر مستقل بازار

این فعال حرفه‌ای بر خلاف سایرین به آینده بازار طلا بدبین است. او گفته که واکنش منفی طلا به مقاومت‌های کلیدی می‌تواند فشارهای فروش را در هفته پیش رو تشدید کند. از نظر او سطح کلیدی بازار در ۱۷۵۲ دلار قرار گرفته است. اگر طلا از این حمایت عبور کند، تا کف‌های قیمتی ماه مارس در زیر ۱۷۰۰ دلار پایین خواهد آمد.

آدام باتن (Adam Button) استراتژیست ارشد بازار در Forexlive.com

باتن معتقد است که با وجود اختلاف‌نظرها بر سر تورم آمریکا، ریسک‌های اقتصادی همچنان از قیمت‌های بالاتر طلا حمایت خواهند کرد. چشم‌انداز بنیادی طلا همچنان مبهم است. سیگنالی‌هایی که از فدرال رزرو، تورم و کرونای دلتا صادر می‌شود گیج کننده هستند. اما در کل همه چیز از پایین باقی ماندن نرخ بهره حکایت دارد. در بازار طلا، من فکر می‌کنم که این خبر خوبی است و باعث خواهد شد تا قیمت طلا به محدوده ۱۹۰۰ یا نزدیکی آن صعود کند.

آدریان دی (Adrian Day) رئیس شرکت مدیریت دارایی

آدریان دی طرفدار روند صعودی است. از نظر او هم‌زمان با بی‌اعتباری بانک‌های مرکزی در بازارهای مالی، طلا برای سرمایه‌گذاران جذابیت پیدا کرده است. سرمایه‌گذاران زیادی به فدرال رزرو و سایر بانک‌های مرکزی دنیا بی‌اعتماد شده‌اند. در واقع برخلاف فدرال رزرو، سرمایه‌گذاران به این نتیجه رسیده‌اند که رشد تورم قوی و ادامه‌دار خواهد بود.

میشل مور (Michael Moor) مؤسس Moor Analytics

این فعال حرفه‌ای هم نسبت به روند میان‌مدت بازار طلا بدبین است و منتظر واکنش بازار به محدوده ۱۷۵۰ دلاری است.

مارک چندلر (Marc Chandler) مدیر شرکت Bannockburn Global Forex

هر چند که مارک چندلر فکر می‌کند که قیمت اونس طلای جهانی افزایش یافته و تشکیل اوج داده، اما از نظر او طلا این قدرت را دارد که تا مقاومت ۱۸۵۰ دلاری بالا بیاید.

کوین گردی (Kevin Grady) رئیس شرکت Phoenix Futures and Options LLC

این فعال حرفه‌ای گفته که بعد از صعود قیمت اونس طلای جهانی به اوج یک ماهه، بازار با مقاومت‌های تکنیکالی مواجه شده و نتوانسته از میانگین متحرک ۵۰ روز در ۱۸۳۷ دلار عبور کند. از نظر او، روند طلا خنثی است. با این حال طلا توانسته موقعیت خود را به خوبی در بالای میانگین متحرک ۲۰۰ روز حفظ کند.

بسیاری از سرمایه‌گذاران در تلاش هستند تا قیمت منصفانه اونس طلای جهانی را پیدا کنند. به نظر می‌رسد که از نظر بازار قیمت منصفانه فعلی بازار در اطراف ۱۸۰۰ دلار قرار گرفته است. گردی در ادامه گفته که به معامله فروش در بازار طلا فکر نمی‌کند، چون‌که وضعیت بنیادی طلا قوی است. واقعیت این است که رشد تورم سریع بوده، سیاست‌های انبساطی در حال  اجراست و ارزهای اصلی هم در حال تضعیف هستند، به همین دلیل قیمت طلا باید بیشتر از این بالا بیاید.

19 July 21 ، 12:35 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

ارزیابی هفتگی سایت کیتکو: همه اهالی بازار به رشد قیمت طلا (GOLD) خوش بین هستند

ارزیابی هفتگی سایت کیتکو: همه اهالی بازار به رشد قیمت طلا (GOLD) خوش بین هستند

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سرمایه‌گذاران خرد و فعالان حرفه‌ای بازار به روند کوتاه‌ مدت اونس طلای جهانی (GOLD) خوش‌ بین شده‌اند. بر اساس ارزیابی هفتگی سایت کیتکو (Kitco News)، هر دو گروه از فعالین بازار معتقدند که قیمت اونس طلای جهانی(GOLD) افزایش خواهد یافت. در حال حاضر قیمت طلا در زیر ۱۸۰۰ دلار قرار دارد.

با وجود این‌ که طلا عملکرد نامطلوب یک ماهه، در بیش از چهار سال گذشته را تجربه کرده، اما معاملات هفته گذشته را تنها با 22صدم درصد افزایش به پایان رساند. داده‌های اشتغال آمریکا(NFP) نتوانستند از دلار آمریکا حمایت کنند. با تضعیف ارزش دلار آمریکا، قیمت اونس طلای جهانی(GOLD)  هم افزایش یافته است. این هفته تمرکز اصلی بازار جهانی به گزارش نشست ماه ژوئن فدرال رزرو آمریکا موسوم به FOMC Minutes خواهد بود. این گزارشها تا آخرین لحظه انتشار به روز رسانی خواهد شد و به همین دلیل می‌تواند آخرین دیدگاه‌ها و انتظارات مقامات فدرال رزرو را ارسال کند.

در این هفته ۱۳ فعال حرفه‌ای (Wall Street) در ارزیابی هفتگی شرکت کرده‌اند. در بین این پیش بینی ها ۶۹٫۲ درصد پیش‌ بینی کردند که روند این هفته اونس طلای جهانی صعودی خواهد بود. ۳۰٫۸ درصد نیز پیش‌ بینی کردند که بازار بدون روند می ماند. هیچ‌کس انتظار روند نزولی در بازار را نداشت. همینطور ۲۵۶ سرمایه‌ گذار خرد (Main Street) در نظرسنجی آنلاین شرکت کرده‌اند. ۴۹٫۶ درصد نظر دادند که بازار طلا روند صعودی، ۲۵٫۸ درصد گفتند روند نزولی و ۲۴٫۶ درصد هم بازار را بدون روند پیش بینی کردند.

بررسی طلای جهانی (GOLD) از دیدگاه فعالین حرفه‌ای بازار

جیم وایکوف (Jim Wyckoff) تحلیلگر تکنیکال بازار در کیتکو

از نظر وایکوف، بهترین راه برای تعیین این‌که آیا روند طلا در هفته پیش رو صعودی خواهد بود یا نزولی، این است که منتظر شکست فاز خنثی در بین ۱۸۰۰-۱۷۵۰ دلار ماند. قیمت اونس طلای جهانی بین ۱۷۵۰ و ۱۸۰۰ دلار به دام افتاده است. شکست سقف یا کف این دامنه خنثی می‌تواند مسیر بعدی اونس طلای جهانی را مشخص کند.

مارک چندلر (Marc Chandler) مدیر شرکت Bannockburn Global Forex

از دید این فعال حرفه‌ای، ناحیه ۱۸۱۵-۱۸۰۰ دلاری اولین مانع جدی در برابر خریداران طلاست. من انتظار دارم که بعد از برخورد به حمایت ۱۷۵۰ دلاری، قیمت اونس طلای جهانی به سطوح بالاتری صعود کند. اندیکاتورهای تکنیکال هم از تشکیل کف قیمتی در بازار حکایت دارند.

بارت ملک (Bart Melek) سرپرست تیم استراتژی TD Securities

بازار انتظار سیاست‌ های انقباضی پولی را دارد. به همین دلیل هر چیزی که از افزایش نرخ بهره یا خروج زود هنگام فدرال رزرو از خرید ماهانه اوراق قرضه حمایت نکند، باعث ناامیدی بازار خواهد شد و در نتیجه با تضعیف ارزش دلار آمریکا، قیمت اونس طلای جهانی افزایش خواهد یافت.

شان لوسک (Sean Lusk) مدیر Walsh Trading

طلا یک قدم به جلو و دو قدم به عقب بر می‌دارد. طلا نتوانسته موقعیت خود را در بالای ۱۸۰۰ دلار حفظ کند و تا نزدیکی کف قیمتی اواسط آوریل در ۱۷۶۰ دلار سقوط کرد. در حال حاضر نرخ بیکاری آمریکا دوباره افزایش یافته و همه چیز از تشدید فشارهای تورمی حکایت دارند. اما مشکل اصلی (برای بازار طلا) رالی صعودی دلار آمریکاست.

دنیل پاویلونیز (Daniel Pavilonis) کارگزار ارشد بازار آتی کالا در RJO

از دید این فعال حرفه‌ای، اگر قیمت اونس طلای جهانی در بالای ۱۸۲۰ دلار بسته شود، می‌توان انتظار صعود بیشتر قیمت طلا را داشت.  طلا در انتهای فصل دوم سال ۲۰۲۱ با بازگشت صعودی مواجه شده است. همین اتفاق در فصل اول سال و زمان نشست فدرال رزرو آمریکا هم روی داد. میانگین متحرک ۲۰۰ روز از طلا حمایت می‌کند. شکست سطح کلیدی ۱۸۲۰ دلاری می‌تواند تکلیف طلا را تعیین کند. اگر طلا از این سطح عبور کند، می‌تواند به اوج‌های بالاتر و حتی جدیدتر صعود کند، به خصوص اگر در دلار آمریکا شاهد تشکیل اوج قیمتی باشیم.

کولین سیزنیسکی (Colin Cieszynski) استراتژیست ارشد بازار در SIA

من انتظار دارم که امروز (جمعه) و دوشنبه بازار به دلیل تعطیلات آمریکا آرام باشد، اما در کل، وضعیت تکنیکال طلا به گونه‌ای است که می‌توان انتظار ادامه جهش صعودی فعلی را داشت.

04 July 21 ، 13:33 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

Kitco's opinion about gold from the perspective of investors Sunday, June 6

Kitco's opinion about gold from the perspective of investors Sunday, June 6

https://bayanbox.ir/view/4512490619870336680/kitco-6-6-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AA-%D8%AD%D9%82.jpg According to Kitco News' weekly assessment, the market atmosphere is still in favor of buyers. Some analysts believe that the growth of US economic indicators will intensify inflationary pressures. However, the growth of economic indicators is not strong enough to force the US Federal Reserve to withdraw from expansionary monetary policy. Micro-investors and market traders believe that the gold market trend will tend to rise in the coming week. However, the number of fans of the downtrend is also increasing. A number of analysts have warned that the gold market is above $ 1,900 saturation.

This week, 16 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. 69% predict that the global gold ounce trend will be upward. Another 13% predict that the market trend will be downward. Meanwhile, about 19% expect a trend-free or neutral market. Also this week, 1,023 Main Street investors took part in an online poll. 54% were in favor of the uptrend, 29% were in favor of the downtrend and 17% were in favor of the neutral trend.

US employment data was released on Friday, which was generally weaker than market forecasts. The growth of the US NFP index was only 559 thousand units. The market expected growth of 645,000 units. However, wage growth last month was half a percent.

Analysis of professional gold market activists

Marc Chandler is the CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex

According to the activist, the price of an ounce of global gold grew well in response to weak US employment data. "However, in ounces of gold ounces, I tend to be a seller rather than a buyer. "MACD and stochastic indicators also indicate a bearish correction."

Adrina Day, President of Adrian Investment Management Company

"US employment data show weak employment growth. Wage growth has been good. But rising wages are raising concerns about escalating inflationary pressures. Wage growth is usually highly sticky, and NFP growth indicates that wages need to go even higher for more people to return to the job market. "This is bad news for the US dollar and good news for the ounce of global gold."

John Feneck, founder of Feneck Investment Consulting

"The break-in of the key $ 1,900 level in May reflects the long-term uptrend in the market."

Kevin Grady, President of Phoenix Futures and Options

Gardi believes that despite the bearish return of the gold market on Thursday, the market is still stable and has a strong uptrend. In his view, gold has been able to defend key protections. However, he added that this week's gold trend will be neutral. Gerdi expects the US Federal Reserve to back out of expansionary monetary policy in response to rising inflationary pressures. According to him, gold will face a serious challenge in maintaining its position above $ 1,900. "The US Federal Reserve has made a mistake in assessing the outlook for inflation, and the rapid growth of inflation will not be temporary. "Gold can rise to higher levels, but somewhere in the rally, US inflationary pressures will cause the Federal Reserve to pull back from expansionary monetary policy and halt the global gold ounce rally."

Darin Newsom Independent Market Analyst

The activist believes that because the price of an ounce of world gold could not close above the closing price of two weeks ago (in 1905), the medium-term trend of the market has changed.

06 June 21 ، 18:59 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

Evaluation of Kitco site about gold market Sunday, April 18

Evaluation of Kitco site about gold market Sunday, April 18

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According to the weekly assessment of the Kitco News site, with the penetration of the global ounce gold price above the key resistance of $ 1765, all market professionals expect a further increase in the global ounce gold price.
This week, 13 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. All 13 predict that the global gold ounce trend will be bullish next week. Meanwhile, 1,103 Main Street investors took part in an online poll. 65% are in favor of an uptrend, 18% are in favor of a downtrend and 17% are in favor of a trendless or neutral market.

Analysis of market professionals

Ole Hansen is Saxo Bank Senior Market Strategist

"The XAUUSD bullish jump from $ 1680 has eased the minds of gold buyers and gold will soon reach higher levels." The activist said he would buy gold after rising on Thursday. According to him, the loss limit of the purchase transaction should be in the range of $ 1755. According to Hansen, the main factor driving up the price of an ounce of global gold was the decline in Treasury yields and the weakening of the US dollar.

Phillip Streible is the senior market strategist at Blue Line Futures

This professional activist also wants to enter into a buy deal after the recent price peak in the market. However, he believes that the loss limit of the purchase transaction should be determined with great care and with the increase in the price of gold, the loss limit should also be increased.

Darin Newsom Independent Market Analyst

According to this professional activist, the price of an ounce of world gold can rise to the peak of $ 1822. "After the break of this price peak, Pulbeck will probably be $ 1765. "However, the ounce of global gold is behaving in such a way that it seems to want to reach higher prices."

John Weyer, CEO of Walsh Trading

This professional activist focuses on the $ 1,785 resistance. According to him, if inflationary pressures intensify, the price of an ounce of global gold could reach above $ 1,800.

Adam Button Senior Market Strategist at Forexlive.com

According to Adam Button, the price of an ounce of world gold could rise to $ 1,840.

18 April 21 ، 18:02 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

Weekly Gold Ratings at Kitco Sunday, April 11

Weekly Gold Ratings at Kitco Sunday, April 11

According to Kitco News, optimism has been boosted again by rising global gold prices. An ounce of global gold has been able to defend its previous support and seems to be looking to cross the key and psychological level of $ 1750. That's why market participants expect the global medium-term ounce trend to be bullish. However, some analysts have warned that it is too early to talk about the XAUUSD uptrend.

This week, 15 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. Meanwhile, 60% of participants predict that the global gold ounce trend will be bullish. Another 20 percent predict a downtrend and the rest expect a trend-free or neutral market. Meanwhile, 1,201 Main Street investors took part in an online poll. 65% are in favor of an uptrend, 20% are in favor of a downtrend and 16% are in favor of a trend-free market.

Optimism for a short-term uptrend also strengthened among small investors and market traders after the global ounce price of key support jumped below $ 1,700. Last week, the price of an ounce of global gold climbed to around $ 1760, however, it ended the week below $ 1750. On Friday, we saw intensifying sales pressures in the gold market. The rise in Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar in response to PPI data (manufacturing sector inflation) were the main reasons for the slight decline in the global ounce gold price. Inflation in the US manufacturing sector reached 4.2 percent per year, the fastest growth since September 2011.

Comments of market participants

Adam Button Senior Market Strategist at Forexlive.com


The closing of the global gold price above $ 1755 could be a confirmation of the formation of the twin floor pattern. In this case, the price of an ounce of world gold will rise to $ 1840. "But if the price of an ounce of global gold fails to rise, it will fall to $ 1,676 and below."

Charlie Nedoss Senior Market Strategy at LaSalle Futures Group


This professional activist no longer pays attention to the widespread selling pressures in the treasury securities market (rising bond yields). In his view, the Federal Reserve is not looking to raise interest rates in the near future. "The Fed wants to see real growth in economic indicators and then think about raising interest rates. I think this will stop the US dollar from rising and support the ounce of global gold. "Especially since the US dollar has not yet been able to stay above the 200-day moving average." Ndos is optimistic about the increase in the price of an ounce of global gold. Gold was able to maintain its position above the 200-day moving average. "Gold has hit the price floor of the oscillating range and it seems that this time it is time to touch the ceiling of this range. "I expect the price of an ounce of global gold to cross the $ 1760 resistance level."

Darin Newsom Independent Market Analyst


According to the activist, at least in the medium term, the rising strength of the US dollar has weakened. According to him, the probability that the price of an ounce of world gold will reach higher levels is serious. Gold and the US dollar are inversely related.

Marc Chandler, Senior Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex


This professional activist is not very optimistic about the upward and short-term trend of gold. "Next week, the rise in the value of the US dollar and the rate of return on Treasury bonds may prevent the price of an ounce of gold from rising. US economic and inflation data are on the rise. The break in the $ 1730-1728 support area could push the global ounce price up to $ 1,700.

Adrian Day, Director of Adrian Investment Company


The professional activist believes that the trend of global ounce of gold in the coming week will be neutral. According to him, the market will fluctuate in a limited range. "I doubt gold can make a significant move in the next few weeks," he said. "I think the price of gold will fluctuate between $ 1,680 and $ 1,745."

11 April 21 ، 17:13 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
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Weekly evaluation of Kitco site Monday, April 5

Weekly evaluation of Kitco site Monday, April 5

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At the same time with the formation of the twin floor below $ 1700, optimism about the future price of an ounce of global gold has been strengthened. Last week, the XAUUSD jumped twice below $ 1,700. Although the optimism of market professionals has been relatively strong, the concerns of small investors have not yet been allayed. The latest weekly assessment of Kitco News shows that disagreements between small investors and market professionals have increased. While gold has been able to jump above the monthly price floor and end the week above $ 1,700, some analysts believe that it is not yet possible to talk about a strong uptrend in the market.
This week, 15 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. 73% predict that this week's trend will be an upward ounce of global gold. 13% forecast a downtrend and another 13% expect a trend-free market. Meanwhile, 1,565 Main Street investors took part in an online poll. 41% are in favor of an uptrend, 44% are in favor of a downtrend and 16% are in favor of a trend-free market.

Analysis of market professionals

Colin Cieszynski SIA Wealth Management Senior Market Strategy
"Last week, the world ounce price of gold experienced a significant drop, so it can be said that the recent price increase is just a technical leap. "I do not expect a steady rising rally in the price of an ounce of global gold, and the market is facing many obstacles." He added that he would only be sure of the market's uptrend if the price of a global ounce of gold went above $ 1,780.
Darin Newsom Independent Market Analyst
The activist expects the market to rise in the short term, but he prefers to rely on the uptrend after the defeat of the $ 1756 resistance. According to Newsom, the global ounce of gold is in fierce competition with the US dollar. The long-term trend of the US dollar seems to be upward. The US dollar and the price of an ounce of world gold are inversely related.
Marc Chandler, senior market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex
According to Chandler, rising inflation could lead investors to gold. In times of inflation, investors use gold to cover the risk of inflation. "The twin floor will only be confirmed if the price crosses the peak between the two floors, meaning that the global ounce price must rise above $ 1,754 to confirm the twin floor signal."

05 April 21 ، 12:01 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
rahathagh/راحت حق

Weekly Gold Analysis at Kitco Tuesday, March 16

Weekly Gold Analysis at Kitco Tuesday, March 16

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According to Kitco News, expectations of market participants appear to be changing, and pessimism about the future of the global ounce gold price has eased. The price of an ounce of global gold was able to maintain its position above $ 1,700. Some analysts believe that the XAUUSD market has formed a short-term price floor. As gold prices return from a 10-week low, the optimism of small investors has been boosted by the rise in gold prices. However, market professionals are still pessimistic about the future. This ambiguity has been created in the expectations and desires of micro-investors and professional activists after the rise in crude oil prices and the approval of the US government's financial and support package. Many analysts have said that the US government's financial support package will support the global ounce price of gold in the long run. Others, however, expect the US government fiscal package to drive strong stock market growth and Treasury yields (to the detriment of the gold market).
This week, 16 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. 38% predict that the global gold ounce trend will be upward this week. 31% predict that the price of an ounce of global gold will fall. Another 31% expect a trend-free or neutral market. 1611 Main Street investors also took part in an online poll. 62% were in favor of the uptrend, 23% were in favor of the downtrend and 15% were in favor of the market without trend or neutral. Not only are a significant number of small investors optimistic about the medium-term trend in global ounces of gold, but the number of pollsters has reached its highest level in a month.

The views of gold market professionals

Adrian Day, President of Adrian D. Capital Management Company
This professional activist is pessimistic about this week's trend of global gold. He expects prices to fall. However, he predicts that the market is at a price floor and a possible price drop will be the last price drop in the market. "We can expect further price declines from current levels, but prices will continue to rise again (meaning prices will not continue to fall). "But even if the price goes down, I will not be a seller." He went on to say that by injecting high liquidity into the world financial system, being a gold seller is a dangerous job.
Adam Button leads Forexlive.com Currency Strategy Team
This professional activist is also optimistic about the global gold ounce trend. According to him, maintaining support at $ 1680 is a good sign for the upward trend of gold ounces. "The market has learned to cope with high rates of return. "This week's meeting of the US Federal Reserve is also unlikely to change monetary policy."
Colin Cieszynski Senior Market Strategy at SIA Capital Management
The activist believes that the rapid growth of the US economy will make it difficult to raise the price of an ounce of global gold. "I doubt the Federal Reserve will downplay the rapid rise in inflation or try to stop the dollar from appreciating and the rate of return," he said. "I do not think the Federal Reserve, like the European Central Bank, is ready to intervene in the market."

16 March 21 ، 09:35 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
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Weekly Gold Analysis Monday, March 1

Weekly Gold Analysis Monday, March 1

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Last week, the price of an ounce of global gold fell close to $ 100 and fell to $ 1720. This is the lowest price in an ounce of gold in the last eight months. According to the weekly assessment of Kitco News, it seems that from the point of view of market professionals, the decline in the price of an ounce of global gold is not over yet. In the coming week, all eyes will be on changes in the rate of return on Treasury bonds and the US dollar. Recently, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to more than 1.6 percent.
This week, 13 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation. 61.5% predict that this week's trend of global gold ounces will be declining. 23% of participants also predict that the short-term trend of global gold ounces will be upward. The remaining 15.5% expect a trend-neutral or neutral market. Meanwhile, 669 Main Street investors took part in the online poll. 52.5% were in favor of an uptrend, 33.3% were in favor of a downtrend and 14.2% were in favor of a trend-free market. This is the lowest level of micro-investor participation in an online survey in the past year. According to market analysts, the key support for global gold is at $ 1,700, and the continued decline of the market depends on the reaction of gold to this support.
Perspectives of Gold Market Professionals (XAUUSD)

Colin Cieszynski Senior Market Strategy at SIA Wealth Management
"The US dollar appears to be making up for recent declines, especially as investors focus on increasing Treasury yields." The price of an ounce of global gold is inversely related to the value of the US dollar. This means that the strengthening of the US dollar is to the detriment of the global ounce gold price.
Marc Chandler is the CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex
The recent bullish ounce of global gold has disappeared and the price of an ounce of global gold has fallen below the simple moving average of 20 days. The rise in US Treasury yields has hurt gold. XAUUSD's next target is to correct 61.8% of Fibonacci near $ 1,690. I doubt the market will move in this direction in the medium term. However, I will not be surprised by the neutral and wide fluctuations of the gold market. "
Adrian Day, President of Adrian D. Capital Management Company
"Next week you can see the latest efforts of sellers in the market. From a fundamental point of view, the situation is in favor of ounces of global gold, especially since there is a lot of liquidity in the world. The dollar index has only recorded an upward jump in response to the recent price peaks, meaning that the dollar index is still declining. In the US bond market, while long-term bond yields have risen, short-term bond yields are still low and the real interest rate on the US economy is negative. "Most importantly, the market needs a strong one-sided move to change the expectations and inclinations of investors."
Mark Leibovit Editor-in-Chief V.R. Metals / Resource
This professional activist is most pessimistic about the future of the gold market. He believes that the price of an ounce of global gold may fall as low as $ 1,500. "There are a lot of buyers in the market. The technical situation of the market is either neutral or declining. "So can the market fall to $ 1,500?"
Ole Hansen is a commodity market strategist at Saxo Bank
"For the first time in four weeks, I expect the global ounce price to rise." He attributed the optimism to gold prices to the US stock market reaction to the rate of return on Treasury bonds. "Increasing the rate of return on treasury bonds has also affected other financial markets. This means that investors will soon start thinking about buying safe and secure assets. The Fed's views are likely to be challenged in the coming weeks (Powell did not take the rise in Treasury yields seriously, saying the increase was due to optimism about the US economy, not inflation expectations). The US economy can not tolerate high rates of return, and the resurgence of bond yields could make investors think that the US Federal Reserve may have to control the yield curve in the near future. In that case, the real rate of return and the value of the US dollar will fall and the price of an ounce of global gold will fall sharply.

01 March 21 ، 20:22 agreeین ۰ disagreeین ۰
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