Economic calendar Monday, February 1
An overview of the cryptocurrency market
On January 29, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reached $ 38,500 for a short time before a sharp correction and reached $ 35,000.
This sharp resistance defeat in the price of Bitcoin is largely attributed to Ilan Mask and the change of his Twitter profile to Bitcoin. Dodge Quinn, on the other hand, continues its hype on Twitter and among traders. The DOGE price adjusted to 41% after reaching a record high of $ 0.078, before returning to $ 0.045.
These developments are related to the creation of the Wall Street Bets Index (WSB) in the FTX exchange. It tracks the prices of Nokia (NOK), BlackBerry (BB), AMC Theaters (AMC), GameStop (GME), Silver (SLV), DOGE and FTX tokens using their weighted average price.
Bitcoin price stability despite the sale of miners
Despite recent fluctuations, corporate investors are still showing more interest in bitcoin and are even willing to pay premiums for using bitcoin CME futures contracts.
Even the selling pressure created by bitcoin miners, at levels that have been unprecedented since the price increase to $ 14,000 in July 2019 (July 98), has not met the growing demand for this currency. Unlike previous years, mass sales by miners have not had a negative impact on the long-term price of BTC.
The growing interest of organizations and the advent of DeFi are the main reasons for the growth of bitcoin prices. As the Chinese New Year approaches, the main support level to watch out for is $ 34,000, while the resumption of the currency's uptrend will face resistance at $ 38,000.
The expiration of $ 4.9 billion in BTC futures on January 29 also did not seem to have much of an impact on the market, as Robinhood last week's move attracted more people to the cryptocurrency industry.
Altcoins growth signals
While Bitcoin is struggling to stay above $ 34,000, DOGE has found its way into the top 10 currencies in the market, and a number of Altcoins have seen bullish failures.
Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) have both grown by almost 9% in the last 24 hours, while Voyager Token (VGX) continues to climb higher. The currency is currently trading at $ 1.77 with 70% growth.
Atrium is trading with a 3.51% increase in 24-hour timeframe at $ 1344. Polkadat, despite a 0.93% price increase, still shows a 9.01% decline on a weekly basis. The currency is currently trading at 16.51%.
The total market value of cryptocurrencies is currently $ 1.01 trillion and the bitcoin dominance rate is 63.5%.
Review of the Dow Jones index-January 30
The support and resistance ranges of the Dow Jones index are shown in the figure. If either fails, the next targets (both support and resistance) will be available.
Be Different ...
What is the dollar index?
The US dollar index consists of the geometric weight average of a basket of foreign currencies against the dollar. This is very similar to how stock indices work in that it provides an overview of the value of a portfolio of securities, the securities we are talking about here are other major currencies.
The US dollar index consists of six foreign currencies, which are:
Canadian Dollars (CAD)
There is an interesting question here, if the index is created from 6 currencies, how many countries does it include?
If your answer is 6 you are wrong.
If your answer is 22 you are a genius.
There are 22 countries, as there are 17 EU members that have adopted the euro as their currency, plus five other countries (Japan, Britain, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland) and their associated currencies.
It is clear that 22 countries make up a small part of the world, but many other currencies follow the US dollar index very closely. This makes the USDX a good tool for measuring the global strength of the US dollar.
Now that we know what a portfolio consists of, let's get to the (geometric weight average) section. Since not all countries are the same size, it is fair to give each one a proper weight when calculating the US dollar index.
In 17 countries, the euro is a large part of the US dollar index. Next is the Japanese yen, which makes sense because Japan is one of the largest economies in the world. The other four countries make up less than 30% of the USDX.
Here's something interesting: When the euro falls, which one might cause the US dollar index to move?
The euro is also a large part of the US dollar index, we can call this index (anti-euro index). Since the USDX is strongly influenced by the Euro, people are looking for the dollar index (they are the most balanced). More information is provided below, first let's look at the charts!
Use USDX in Forex
How do you probably think I can use the dollar index in my trading system? Well be patient, we all know that many highly traded currency pairs include the US dollar, such as EUR / USD. USD / JPY. USD / CHF. GBP / USD. USD.CAD, in fact, often USDX provides a better picture when the market outlook for the US dollar is unclear. In the wider world of Forex, the USDX can be used as an indicator of the strength of the US dollar, since the USDX is more than 50% formed by the euro area and is quite inversely related to the EUR / USD.
This is like a mirror image! If one goes up the other is likely to go down. If the USDX is making significant moves, you can almost certainly expect currency traders to react to it. In short, currency traders use the USDX as a key indicator for the direction of the USD. use.
What is the Dow Jones Index and what does it do?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an industry average of the US stock index, abbreviated DJI, and shows price fluctuations of 30 companies operating in the United States.
This index was founded by Charles Dow almost a century ago, and that is exactly why investors use this index to compare their performance in the stock market.
What companies does Dow Jones consist of?
Shares of well-known American brands operating in finance, oil and gas, public services, consumer goods, technology and telecommunications, and skin care form a weighted price index.
This means that the shares of higher value companies will have a greater impact on market value, and similarly, lower value shares will have less value on market value. In other words, a stock with a higher value and volume constitutes 70% of the market value.
It is worth noting that the stocks of companies such as Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet are not included in this index due to the high weight of their revenue streams.
Dow Jones Index Applications
It is a factor for monitoring market conditions. Because this index, as one of the main indicators, creates a correct understanding of the stock market for investors.
Reduces investment risk. In fact, by buying this index, you can experience a diverse and low-risk investment.
It is a factor in monitoring the performance of the investment. For example, if the profit from your portfolio is consistently higher than Dow Jones, it indicates that you have made the optimal investment, and vice versa.
The future trend of stocks determines mutual funds and ETFs. In fact, given the beta, it can be measured that the market value of a company's stock against Dow Jones will increase or decrease.
USDCHF Wednesday, January 28
The short-term trend of the US dollar against the Swiss franc is neutral. From the buyers' point of view, a definite resistance break of 0.8925 could indicate the formation of a short-term price floor at 0.8756. In this case, the short-term trend of the USDCHF pair will rise to the level of 38.2% Fibonacci at 0.9193. However, if the USDCHF falls below the partial support of 0.8821, the pair can maintain its short-term downtrend and the USDCHF will be ready to re-hit the price level of 0.8756.
GBPUSD Wednesday, January 28
The short-term trend of the British pound against the US dollar is neutral, and as long as the support of 1.3608 maintains its position, we can expect another upward movement of the GBPUSD pair. A break of $ 1,3758 could push the uptrend from $ 1,1409 to the estimated 61.8% Fibonacci at $ 1,3956. However, from the sellers' point of view, if GBPUSD falls below $ 1,3608, it will indicate a short-term price peak, especially since there is a downward divergence in the four-hour MACD indicator. In this case, the short-term GBPUSD trend will decline.
EURUSD Wednesday, January 28
The EURUSD pair is fluctuating above the support of $ 1,2052 and the short-term trend of the Euro against the US Dollar is neutral. From the sellers' point of view, the break of the support of $ 1,2052 could revive the correctional movement that started from $ 1,2348. In this case, the short-term trend of EURUSD will fall to $ 1.1887 at the correction of 61.8% Fibonacci. However, in the eyes of buyers, if the EURUSD crosses above the resistance level of $ 1,2188, it can be prepared to hit the price level of $ 1,2348 again.
Two strong signals in the capital market
Possibilities about increasing refinery feed discounts
Unconfirmed news that shook refining stocks
There are rumors of increased feed discounts for the refining industry; It seems that the market attention in recent days to refining symbols is not so unrelated to this unofficial news.
The government is a shareholder in the refineries, and these companies are more likely to approve further discounts to support the industry as well as the capital market. The government should reorganize the "refining fund" project, and some news sources say it is seeking to gain the lost trust of investors in the state-owned fund.
Since the National Refining and Distribution Company has not yet announced the approved feed rates and prices of the five main products for the refining companies' financial statements, it is likely that these rumors will be confirmed.
Increase feed discounts for the refining industry at the summit
In the same petroanalysis, news sources announced the possibility of raising the issue of increasing feed discounts for the refining industry at the summit. Of course, nothing is certain about the news of the refinements, but it seems that the proposals were based on 5%, and it seems that any number approved would be two strong signals for the market; The first is to help the market as a whole and the second is to increase the flow of profits in refineries.
Unconfirmed about steels and petrochemicals
An informed source in the Parliamentary Budget Consolidation Commission told the Fooladban website about the latest approvals of the commission on the steel and petrochemical industry: "According to the decision of the Joint Commission, the energy price of steel and petrochemical industries will be calculated next year based on FOB Persian Gulf."
The informed source further stated: So far, it has been approved that electricity, water and gas of petrochemical and steel units be calculated based on the FOB of the Persian Gulf, and 18 thousand billion Tomans of revenue has been seen in next year's budget from the release of energy and food of these units. .
The resolution of the Joint Commission will be finalized by the end of tonight and will go to the public for approval.
The parliament seems to believe that the steel and petrochemical industries export their products by receiving cheap feed and have disrupted the domestic market. On the other hand, the huge profits of these companies are spent in a non-transparent manner in certain cases.
Earlier, news about the elimination of steelmakers' energy subsidies in next year's budget and then a 50% discount to calculate the energy costs of steelmakers was published in the media.